Overview

This working paper assesses Rajasthan's preparedness for transitioning to electric vehicles under the state's EV Policy 2022, against the backdrop of India's net-zero commitment by 2070 and the transport sector's 13% share in national CO2 emissions. Using a scenario-based analysis comparing Business as Usual (BAU) and Targeted Policy (TAP) scenarios, the paper evaluates the feasibility of the policy's 2027 targets across two-wheeler, three-wheeler, four-wheeler, and e-bus segments.

The analysis covers six interconnected dimensions of the transition: investments in EV and battery manufacturing, charging and power infrastructure, the role of state and city transport utilities, employment impacts in formal and informal segments, fiscal implications for state finances, and institutional calibration. It also examines enabling factors including carbon credits, ESG-linked finance, and inter-departmental coordination needed to position Rajasthan as a leader in sustainable mobility.

Key Highlights

• Adoption is uneven across segments. The three-wheeler segment has surpassed its 2027 target, but two-wheelers (projected at 6.6% against a 15% target) and four-wheelers are likely to fall short under BAU, requiring stronger policy support.
  
  
• The 35 lakh EV manufacturing target faces headwinds. Despite investment commitments from Okinawa, Hero Electric, and Saera Electric, slow plant construction and domestic value addition challenges make the target difficult to achieve without leveraging RIPS and the proposed EV Accelerator Fund.
  
  
• Charging infrastructure needs a step-change. Rajasthan has 313 EVs per charging point, far above leading states. The TAP scenario would require about 7,528 additional public charging stations by 2027, alongside solutions for low utilisation, interoperability gaps, and a clearer role for DISCOMs.
  
  
• Job impact is mixed but manageable. About 31% of ICE job roles will be affected (14% obsolete, 17% requiring reskilling), with 93 new EV-specific roles emerging. Last-mile connectivity through e3Ws could generate about 1.5 lakh jobs in Jaipur alone by 2025, helping offset disruption to the 70% informal workforce in the sector.
  
  
• Fiscal impact is contained. The annual revenue shortfall from POL taxes and EV subsidies is estimated at INR 847-1,017 Crore by 2027, just over 1% of Own Tax Revenue, leaving room to expand incentive coverage and add provisions for battery manufacturing and recycling.
  
  

Carbon credits and institutional reform are key enablers. EV adoption could cut tailpipe emissions by 2.8-4.23 lakh metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2027, opening carbon credit and ESG-linked finance opportunities particularly for state transport utilities, supported by stronger inter-departmental coordination, a robust data regime, and an emissions inventory under the Department of Economics and Statistics.